CRG-EUR-INT-0925/9: “We Are Already at War with Russia” & CRG Predictive Casualty Estimates
20/09/25 21:33
๐๐ฅ๐-๐๐จ๐ฅ-๐๐ก๐ง-๐ฌ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฑ/๐ต
๐ฆ๐๐ฏ๐ท๐ฒ๐ฐ๐: “We Are Already at War with Russia” & CRG Predictive Casualty Estimates
๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ: 20 Sept 2025
๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐: Condor Research Group (CRG)
๐๐๐ฑ๐ถ๐ ๐ฆ๐ผ๐๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐:
- Admiral Paolo Treu (Former Commander-in-Chief, Italian Navy Fleet), “We are already at war with Russia”, public statement, 20 Sept 2025 — https://lnkd.in/dX4sQE49
- CRG-EUR-INT-0925/RU-INV-COA: Strategic Predictive Assessment — NATO/US/EU Invasion of Russia
- CRG-EUR-INT-0925: Poland Drone Incursion — NATO Response Trajectory
๐๐ ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ (๐ง๐ฟ๐ฒ๐):
“How can one be so hypocritical as to think that indirectly supporting Ukraine, with billions of euros and war supplies, means ‘helping an ally’ without being fully involved in the war against Russia? For Russia, our ‘indirect’ support has already produced lengthening of the war, huge human and material losses, and even strikes inside its own territory.”
๐ฆ๐๐บ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐:
Treu’s statement collapses the distinction between indirect and direct participation. By declaring Europe “already at war,” NATO/EU leadership is stripped of the protective fiction of distance. In parallel, CRG models forecast up to 1.6M military and 1.4M civilian deaths in full-spectrum war.
๐๐๐๐ฒ๐๐๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐:
- ๐๐ป๐๐๐ถ๐๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ถ๐ป๐: Treu’s shift from critique to outright declaration alters the discourse: Europe is no longer “approaching war” but already “inside war.” This carries destabilizing weight within defense and policy circles.
- ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐น๐ถ๐ฎ๐ป ๐๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ผ๐: Airspace incursions lasting minutes (e.g., MiG-31 probes) are narrated as manageable events. In reality, CRG modeling shows they are potential tripwires for mass-casualty scenarios that no civilian population has been prepared to absorb.
- ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ด๐ถ๐ฐ ๐๐น๐น๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป: Leaders emphasize readiness optics (F-35 intercepts, eastern flank posturing) while omitting the human costs of escalation. Treu’s declaration forces the uncomfortable linkage between present policy and predictable blood costs.
- ๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ: By binding Treu’s words to CRG casualty projections, the narrative shifts from rhetorical alarmism to quantified inevitability: political language is confronted with operational arithmetic.
๐๐ถ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ:
Confront policymakers, media, and publics with the core question:
“๐๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ค๐ช๐ท๐ช๐ญ๐ช๐ข๐ฏ๐ด ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฑ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ข๐ค๐ค๐ฆ๐ฑ๐ต ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ด๐ฆ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฃ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ด — ๐ต๐ณ๐ช๐จ๐จ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ฃ๐บ ๐ฎ๐ช๐ฏ๐ถ๐ต๐ฆ๐ด ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ข๐ช๐ณ๐ด๐ฑ๐ข๐ค๐ฆ ๐ท๐ช๐ฐ๐ญ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ?”
๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ด๐ถ๐ป ๐ก๐ผ๐๐ฒ:
“๐๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ธ๐ข๐ณ ๐ช๐ด ๐ข๐ญ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐บ ๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฆ, ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐ฅ๐ฐ๐ฆ๐ด ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ต ๐ด๐ข๐ท๐ฆ ๐ญ๐ช๐ท๐ฆ๐ด, ๐ช๐ต ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ญ๐บ ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ง๐ฆ๐ณ๐ด ๐ข๐ค๐ค๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ต๐ข๐ฃ๐ช๐ญ๐ช๐ต๐บ.”
๐ฆ๐๐ฏ๐ท๐ฒ๐ฐ๐: “We Are Already at War with Russia” & CRG Predictive Casualty Estimates
๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ: 20 Sept 2025
๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐: Condor Research Group (CRG)
๐๐๐ฑ๐ถ๐ ๐ฆ๐ผ๐๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐:
- Admiral Paolo Treu (Former Commander-in-Chief, Italian Navy Fleet), “We are already at war with Russia”, public statement, 20 Sept 2025 — https://lnkd.in/dX4sQE49
- CRG-EUR-INT-0925/RU-INV-COA: Strategic Predictive Assessment — NATO/US/EU Invasion of Russia
- CRG-EUR-INT-0925: Poland Drone Incursion — NATO Response Trajectory
๐๐ ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ (๐ง๐ฟ๐ฒ๐):
“How can one be so hypocritical as to think that indirectly supporting Ukraine, with billions of euros and war supplies, means ‘helping an ally’ without being fully involved in the war against Russia? For Russia, our ‘indirect’ support has already produced lengthening of the war, huge human and material losses, and even strikes inside its own territory.”
๐ฆ๐๐บ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐:
Treu’s statement collapses the distinction between indirect and direct participation. By declaring Europe “already at war,” NATO/EU leadership is stripped of the protective fiction of distance. In parallel, CRG models forecast up to 1.6M military and 1.4M civilian deaths in full-spectrum war.
๐๐๐๐ฒ๐๐๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐:
- ๐๐ป๐๐๐ถ๐๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ถ๐ป๐: Treu’s shift from critique to outright declaration alters the discourse: Europe is no longer “approaching war” but already “inside war.” This carries destabilizing weight within defense and policy circles.
- ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐น๐ถ๐ฎ๐ป ๐๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ผ๐: Airspace incursions lasting minutes (e.g., MiG-31 probes) are narrated as manageable events. In reality, CRG modeling shows they are potential tripwires for mass-casualty scenarios that no civilian population has been prepared to absorb.
- ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ด๐ถ๐ฐ ๐๐น๐น๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป: Leaders emphasize readiness optics (F-35 intercepts, eastern flank posturing) while omitting the human costs of escalation. Treu’s declaration forces the uncomfortable linkage between present policy and predictable blood costs.
- ๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ: By binding Treu’s words to CRG casualty projections, the narrative shifts from rhetorical alarmism to quantified inevitability: political language is confronted with operational arithmetic.
๐๐ถ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ:
Confront policymakers, media, and publics with the core question:
“๐๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ค๐ช๐ท๐ช๐ญ๐ช๐ข๐ฏ๐ด ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฑ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ข๐ค๐ค๐ฆ๐ฑ๐ต ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ด๐ฆ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฃ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ด — ๐ต๐ณ๐ช๐จ๐จ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ฃ๐บ ๐ฎ๐ช๐ฏ๐ถ๐ต๐ฆ๐ด ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ข๐ช๐ณ๐ด๐ฑ๐ข๐ค๐ฆ ๐ท๐ช๐ฐ๐ญ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ?”
๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ด๐ถ๐ป ๐ก๐ผ๐๐ฒ:
“๐๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ธ๐ข๐ณ ๐ช๐ด ๐ข๐ญ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐บ ๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฆ, ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐ฅ๐ฐ๐ฆ๐ด ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ต ๐ด๐ข๐ท๐ฆ ๐ญ๐ช๐ท๐ฆ๐ด, ๐ช๐ต ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ญ๐บ ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ง๐ฆ๐ณ๐ด ๐ข๐ค๐ค๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ต๐ข๐ฃ๐ช๐ญ๐ช๐ต๐บ.”
