CRG-INT-NOTE-0925/3: Venezuelan Exploitation Feasibility & Target Ranking
09/09/25 19:55
𝗖𝗥𝗚-𝗜𝗡𝗧-𝗡𝗢𝗧𝗘-𝟬𝟵𝟮𝟱/𝟯
𝗦𝘂𝗯𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁: Venezuelan Exploitation Feasibility & Target Ranking
𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗲: 09 Sept 2025
𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆: Condor Research Group (CRG), Strategic Modeling
𝗔𝘂𝗱𝗶𝘁 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲 – 𝗖𝗥𝗚-𝗥𝗘𝗦-𝗜𝗡𝗧-𝟬𝟱𝟮𝟱-𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗡𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀- 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘇𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 (𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱)
Subsequent developments in September 2025 confirm accuracy of projected vulnerabilities.
𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗼𝗶𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗙𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝗿𝗶𝘅
𝗦𝘂𝗺𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘆:
Venezuela remains the premier oil reserve holder in the Western Hemisphere. Its economic collapse and regime weakness amplify susceptibility to external leverage, yet operational access is constrained by both instability and hostile alignments. U.S. posturing continues to emphasize sanctions, narrative coercion, and cyber-penetration as substitutes for overt intervention.
𝗔𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁:
- 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲: Exceptionally high. Hydrocarbon wealth unmatched in the Americas.
- 𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗩𝘂𝗹𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆: Elevated. Weak governance, economic collapse, and dependence on external backers expose fissures.
- 𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗔𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀: Limited. Infrastructure decay and hostile posture obstruct conventional engagement.
- 𝗠𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗔𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀: Moderate. U.S. naval presence feasible, but Russian/Chinese footprints impose escalation risk.
- 𝗖𝗼𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗙𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆: High. Sanctions and narrative ops continue to corrode compliance; targeted psychological operations against leadership remain viable.
𝗗𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲:
Pursue a layered coercion model, combine economic leverage, calibrated cyber-intrusions, and diaspora-driven narrative amplification. Avoid kinetic exposure; maintain deniability and resilient exit channels in case of regime shift or backlash.
Corporate entities should preemptively establish local contact points through foreign subsidiaries, framing entry as opportunistic rather than extractive. This reduces reputational drag on supply chains and positions early movers for disproportionate advantage once conditions normalize.
𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻 𝗡𝗼𝘁𝗲:
“𝘌𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘰𝘪𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘰𝘪𝘭, 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘰𝘱𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘴 — 𝘤𝘰𝘦𝘳𝘤𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘴𝘶𝘤𝘤𝘦𝘦𝘥𝘴 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘪𝘵 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘷𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘳𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘴.”
𝗦𝘂𝗯𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁: Venezuelan Exploitation Feasibility & Target Ranking
𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗲: 09 Sept 2025
𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆: Condor Research Group (CRG), Strategic Modeling
𝗔𝘂𝗱𝗶𝘁 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲 – 𝗖𝗥𝗚-𝗥𝗘𝗦-𝗜𝗡𝗧-𝟬𝟱𝟮𝟱-𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗡𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀- 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘇𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 (𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱)
Subsequent developments in September 2025 confirm accuracy of projected vulnerabilities.
𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗼𝗶𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗙𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝗿𝗶𝘅
𝗦𝘂𝗺𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘆:
Venezuela remains the premier oil reserve holder in the Western Hemisphere. Its economic collapse and regime weakness amplify susceptibility to external leverage, yet operational access is constrained by both instability and hostile alignments. U.S. posturing continues to emphasize sanctions, narrative coercion, and cyber-penetration as substitutes for overt intervention.
𝗔𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁:
- 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲: Exceptionally high. Hydrocarbon wealth unmatched in the Americas.
- 𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗩𝘂𝗹𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆: Elevated. Weak governance, economic collapse, and dependence on external backers expose fissures.
- 𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗔𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀: Limited. Infrastructure decay and hostile posture obstruct conventional engagement.
- 𝗠𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗔𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀: Moderate. U.S. naval presence feasible, but Russian/Chinese footprints impose escalation risk.
- 𝗖𝗼𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗙𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆: High. Sanctions and narrative ops continue to corrode compliance; targeted psychological operations against leadership remain viable.
𝗗𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲:
Pursue a layered coercion model, combine economic leverage, calibrated cyber-intrusions, and diaspora-driven narrative amplification. Avoid kinetic exposure; maintain deniability and resilient exit channels in case of regime shift or backlash.
Corporate entities should preemptively establish local contact points through foreign subsidiaries, framing entry as opportunistic rather than extractive. This reduces reputational drag on supply chains and positions early movers for disproportionate advantage once conditions normalize.
𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻 𝗡𝗼𝘁𝗲:
“𝘌𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘰𝘪𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘰𝘪𝘭, 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘰𝘱𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘴 — 𝘤𝘰𝘦𝘳𝘤𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘴𝘶𝘤𝘤𝘦𝘦𝘥𝘴 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘪𝘵 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘷𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘳𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘴.”
