• Expected early warning signs:
• Increased diplomatic tensions between the US and Venezuela
• Enhanced surveillance and reconnaissance activities by US intelligence agencies
• Military build-up in neighboring countries or at sea
• Economic sanctions and trade restrictions imposed on Venezuela
• Strategies employed:
• Psychological operations to destabilize the Venezuelan government and military
• Cyber attacks to disrupt critical infrastructure and command systems
• Proxy forces and opposition groups supported by the US to create internal unrest

• Weapons employed:
• Tomahawk cruise missiles and precision-guided munitions for targeted strikes
• F-16 and F-35 fighter jets for air superiority and ground support
• Naval blockade and amphibious landing by US Marines
• Forces employed:
• 1-2 US Army or Marine expeditionary brigades (approx. 3,000-6,000 troops)
• Air support from US Air Force and Navy
• Special Operations Forces (SOF) for reconnaissance and direct action missions
• Effects on neighboring countries:
• Colombia: potential influx of refugees and increased military presence along the border
• Brazil: possible involvement in supporting US operations or providing humanitarian aid
• Guyana and other Caribbean nations: potential impact from naval blockade and air operations

• Strategies employed:
• Urban warfare and house-to-house fighting in key cities like Caracas and Maracaibo
• Counterinsurgency operations to secure key terrain and infrastructure
• Humanitarian aid and civil affairs operations to win the hearts and minds of the local population
• Expected support from Iran:
• Potential provision of military advisors, equipment, or supplies to Venezuelan forces
• Diplomatic support through international organizations like the UN or OPEC
• Coordinated cyber operations targeting U.S. logistics or satellite assets
• Proxy activity in adjacent theaters (e.g., Syria, Caribbean, or Ukraine)
• Disinformation campaigns aimed at fracturing regional political consensus.

• Civilian casualties (civcas): estimated 1,000-5,000
• Military casualties (milcas): estimated 500-2,000 (US and coalition forces), 5,000-10,000 (Venezuelan military)

• Economic impact:
• Disruption of global oil supplies and prices
• Humanitarian crisis and potential refugee flows to neighboring countries or the US
• Long-term economic costs for reconstruction and stabilization efforts
• International reactions:
• UN and international condemnation of the invasion
• Potential Russian and Chinese support for Venezuela, including military aid or advisors
• Divided opinions among Latin American and European nations

• Phase 1 (Pre-Invasion): 6-12 weeks prior to the initial assault
• Phase 2 (Initial Assault): 3-7 days
• Phase 3 (Ground Combat): 4-12 weeks or more, depending on the level of resistance and international intervention

• Reduce adversary narrative monopoly and introduce competing, verifiable information.
• Highlight governance and service-delivery failures where demonstrable, shifting public focus to accountability.
• Encourage recalibration among political and civic actors by clarifying evolving strategic conditions.

1. Audience & Signal Mapping: Rapid mapping of channels, audience segments, and dominant narratives to prioritize messaging nodes.
2. Narrative Alignment: Short, consistent themes built on verifiable conditions (economics, governance, public services).
3. Local Voice Amplification: Prioritize locally credible communicators and information intermediaries to surface existing concerns.
4. Humanitarian Framing: Use civil-assistance narratives to reduce harm and demonstrate concern for civilians.
5. Safeguards: Enforce verification, avoid incitement, and require legal review for any operational activity.

• Economic stress and service failures (fact-based reporting).
• Institutional transparency and accountability gaps.
• Civil protection, safety, and humanitarian assistance.

• Digital platforms and messaging apps for monitoring and rapid factual updates.
• Broadcast and community media for wide reach in low-connectivity areas.
• Physical notices and civil-affairs leaflets where required for safety messaging.

• Factual: “Independent verification indicates disruptions to public services in X municipality; humanitarian assistance is being coordinated.”
• Humanitarian: “Humanitarian actors are mobilising to support communities affected by shortages; safe access routes are being posted.”

• Share of sampled local discourse referencing core themes within 72 hours.
• Number of verifiably independent local sources citing core reporting.
• Time to correction for false/misleading claims (<24 hours target).

• Unintended escalation: Use de-escalatory language; coordinate with humanitarian actors.
• Credibility loss: Strict verification and attribution standards.
• Legal/ethical exposure: Mandatory legal and civil-affairs clearance; transparency with multilateral partners where feasible.

1. Close Air Support (CAS): Provide close air support to ground troops, including tactical bombing and strafing.
2. Tactical Air Transport: Conduct tactical air transport missions, including airlift and airdrop operations.
3. Airborne Reconnaissance: Conduct airborne reconnaissance, including surveillance and intelligence gathering.

1. Air-to-Air Combat: Engage in air-to-air combat, including dogfighting and beyond-visual-range (BVR) combat.
2. Air-to-Ground Operations: Conduct air-to-ground operations, including precision-guided munitions and close air support.
3. Escort and Defensive Operations: Provide escort and defensive operations for high-value assets (HVAs), including aircraft and personnel.

1. Aerial Engagement Tactics: Develop TTPs for aerial engagements, including dogfighting and BVR combat.
2. Air Support Request (ASR) Procedures: Establish procedures for requesting air support, including CAS and tactical air transport.
3. Fighter Escort Procedures: Develop procedures for escorting HVAs, including aircraft and personnel.

1. Aerial Surveillance: Conduct aerial surveillance, including reconnaissance and intelligence gathering.
2. Signals Intelligence (SIGINT): Collect SIGINT, including communications and electronic signals.
3. Human Intelligence (HUMINT): Gather HUMINT, including information from human sources.

1. Airborne C2 Platforms: Utilize airborne C2 platforms, including aircraft and satellites.
2. C2 Systems: Develop and employ C2 systems, including data links and communication networks.
3. C2 Procedures: Establish procedures for C2, including command and control of air operations.

1. Air Support Training: Develop training programs for air support operations, including CAS and tactical air transport.
2. Fighter Aviation Training: Provide training for fighter aviation operations, including air-to-air combat and air-to-ground operations.
3. TTP Development: Develop and refine TTPs for air support and fighter aviation operations.

1. Classified Information: Protect classified information related to ASFA operations and TTPs.
2. Safety of Flight: Ensure the safety of flight for all air operations, including air support and fighter aviation missions.
3. Force Protection: Provide force protection for air bases and personnel.

• Neutralize key Venezuelan military command centers and facilities
• Disrupt and destroy critical infrastructure, such as air defense systems, radar, and communication networks
• Create an environment of uncertainty and fear among the Venezuelan population

1. Air Superiority: Utilize F-16 and F-35 fighter jets to establish air superiority over key Venezuelan cities and military installations.
2. Precision-Guided Munitions: Employ Tomahawk cruise missiles, precision-guided bombs, and other advanced munitions to target high-value targets such as command centers, radar sites, and air defense systems.
3. Cyber Attacks: Conduct cyber operations to disrupt and disable critical infrastructure, including power grids, water treatment plants, and communication networks.
4. Amphibious Landing: Utilize US Marines to conduct an amphibious landing on the Venezuelan coast, securing key beachheads and establishing a foothold for further operations.

1. Venezuelan Air Defense Systems: Radar sites, surface-to-air missile (SAM) sites, and air defense command centers.
2. Command Centers: Key military and government facilities, including the Ministry of Defense, presidential palace, and other high-value targets.
3. Strategic Infrastructure: Power plants, water treatment plants, bridges, and other critical infrastructure.

• Weather Conditions: Weather conditions such as cloud cover, wind direction, and temperature can impact the effectiveness of air operations.
• Electronic Warfare: The use of electronic warfare (EW) capabilities to disrupt Venezuelan communication and radar systems.
• Special Operations Forces (SOF): Utilize SOF teams to conduct reconnaissance, sabotage, and direct action missions behind enemy lines.

• Venezuelan Military Response: Expect a disorganized and ineffective response from the Venezuelan military due to the shock and awe effect created by the Initial Assault.
• Civilian Casualties: Anticipate civilian casualties due to the use of precision-guided munitions and cyber attacks on critical infrastructure.
• Infrastructure Damage: Expect significant damage to key infrastructure, including power plants, bridges, and other strategic targets.

• Initial Assault: 3-7 days
• Air Superiority: Established within the first 24 hours
• Cyber Attacks: Conducted throughout the Initial Assault phase

• US Air Force: F-16 and F-35 fighter jets, precision-guided munitions, and cyber attack capabilities.
• US Navy: Tomahawk cruise missiles and naval blockade.
• US Marines: Amphibious landing and ground operations.

• Minimize harm to civilians and civilian infrastructure
• Protect cultural and historical sites
• Ensure the safety of humanitarian aid and relief efforts

1. Precision Munitions: Utilize precision-guided munitions, such as advanced missiles and bombs, to minimize collateral damage.
2. Cultural and Historical Site Protection: Identify and protect cultural and historical sites, such as museums, schools, and hospitals, from damage or destruction.
3. Civilian Evacuation: Establish evacuation routes and corridors for civilians to safely leave combat areas.
4. Humanitarian Aid: Provide humanitarian aid, including food, water, and medical supplies, to affected populations.
5. Civlian-Military Operations (CMO): Conduct CMO operations, such as civil affairs and psychological operations, to engage with local leaders and communities.

• Urban Warfare: Minimize the use of heavy artillery and air power in urban areas to reduce civilian casualties.
• Non-Combatant Evacuation: Establish protocols for evacuating non-combatants from combat zones.
• Cultural Sensitivity: Ensure that US military operations are culturally sensitive, respecting local customs and traditions.

• Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs): Utilize UAVs to conduct reconnaissance and surveillance, reducing the need for manned flights and minimizing collateral damage.
• Advanced Sensor Systems: Employ advanced sensor systems, such as acoustic sensors, to detect and respond to potential threats while minimizing harm to non-combatants.

• Proportionality: Ensure that military operations are proportionate to the threat posed by enemy forces.
• Distinction: Distinguish between combatants and non-combatants, avoiding attacks on civilian targets.
• Precaution: Take all feasible precautions to minimize harm to civilians and civilian objects.

• Reduced Civilian Casualties: Minimize the number of civilian casualties through careful planning and execution of military operations.
• Increased Humanitarian Aid: Provide timely and effective humanitarian aid to affected populations.
• Improved International Relations: Demonstrate a commitment to minimizing harm to non-combatants, enhancing international relations and reputation.

• Ground Combat Phase: 4-12 weeks or more, depending on the level of resistance and international intervention
• Civlian-Military Operations: Conducted throughout the ground combat phase

• US Army: Ground troops, including infantry and special operations forces.
• US Air Force: Aerial support, including UAVs and precision munitions.
• US Navy: Maritime support, including naval blockade and amphibious landing.

1. Guided Rockets: Utilize guided rockets, such as the M31 Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS), to engage targets with high precision.
2. Advanced High-Density Penetrator (AHP) Warheads: Employ AHP warheads, which provide a higher density of explosive material, reducing collateral damage.
3. Precision-Guided Bombs: Use precision-guided bombs, such as the GBU-31 and GBU-38, to engage targets with minimized risk of civilian casualties.

1. Urban Warfare: Utilize precision munitions in urban environments to minimize collateral damage and reduce the risk of harm to civilians.
2. Compound or Enclosure Attacks: Employ precision munitions to breach specific buildings or compounds while minimizing damage to surrounding structures.
3. Moving Target Engagement: Use advanced sensors and fire control systems to engage moving targets, such as vehicles or personnel, with minimized risk of civilian casualties.

1. Reduced Collateral Damage: Minimize the risk of harm to civilians and reduce damage to infrastructure.
2. Increased Lethality: Provide a higher probability of kill (PK) against enemy personnel and equipment.
3. Improved Force Protection: Enhance force protection by reducing the need for close proximity to the target.

1. Cost and Availability: Precision munitions are often more expensive and less available than traditional munitions, limiting their widespread use.
2. Target Identification: Requires accurate identification of targets to ensure effective use of precision munitions.
3. Weather Conditions: Weather conditions such as clouds, fog, or smoke can limit the effectiveness of precision munitions.

1. Advancements in Guidance Systems: Develop more advanced guidance systems, such as those using artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms.
2. Increased Use of Non-Kinetic Effects: Explore non-kinetic effects, such as cyber and electronic warfare, to achieve desired outcomes with minimized risk of civilian casualties.

1. Integrate Precision Munitions into Training: Incorporate precision munitions into training exercises to develop the skills necessary for effective use.
2. Develop Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTPs): Establish TTPs for the use of precision munitions in various scenarios, including urban warfare and compound or enclosure attacks.

• Scenario: Urban warfare in Baghdad, Iraq
• Precision Munition: GBU-31 and GBU-38 precision-guided bombs
• Results: Successful targeting of enemy strongpoints while minimizing collateral damage and civilian casualties
• Lessons Learned: Importance of integrating precision munitions into urban warfare planning and operations

• Scenario: Counterinsurgency (COIN) operations in Helmand Province, Afghanistan
• Precision Munition: GBU-12 and GBU-38 precision-guided bombs, as well as Hellfire missiles
• Results: Effective targeting of insurgent strongpoints while minimizing harm to non-combatants
• Lessons Learned: Value of precision munitions in COIN operations, particularly in rural or remote areas

• Scenario: Coalition airstrikes against ISIS targets in Iraq and Syria
• Precision Munition: GBU-31 and GBU-38 precision-guided bombs, as well as AGM-114 Hellfire missiles
• Results: Successful targeting of ISIS strongpoints while minimizing civilian casualties
• Lessons Learned: Importance of integrating precision munitions into planning and operations for coalition airstrikes

• Scenario: Air support for ground troops in Libya
• Precision Munition: GBU-12 and GBU-38 precision-guided bombs, as well as AGM-114 Hellfire missiles
• Results: Effective air support for ground troops while minimizing harm to non-combatants
• Lessons Learned: Value of precision munitions in supporting ground operations, particularly in urban or complex environments

1. Integration with Planning and Operations: Precision munitions should be fully integrated into planning and operations to maximize their effectiveness.
2. Training and Doctrine: Effective employment of precision munitions requires specialized training and doctrine.
3. Risk Management: Minimizing risk to non-combatants is crucial in post-conflict stabilization efforts, and precision munitions can help achieve this goal.
4. Coalition Operations: Precision munitions can be particularly effective in coalition operations, where coordination and cooperation are essential.

• Establish a stable and secure environment
• Support the development of a legitimate and effective government
• Foster economic growth and infrastructure development

1. Security Sector Reform (SSR): Work with local security forces to develop a professional, accountable, and human rights-respecting security sector.
2. Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR): Support the disarmament and demobilization of former combatants, and reintegrate them into society.
3. Civic Assistance: Provide civic assistance, including food, water, and medical care, to affected populations.
4. Infrastructure Development: Support the development of critical infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, and public buildings.
5. Economic Growth: Foster economic growth by supporting local businesses, promoting investment, and developing a sustainable economy.

• Force Generation: Gradually reduce the number of US troops as security is transferred to local forces.
• Training and Mentoring: Provide training and mentoring to local security forces to ensure they are equipped to maintain security.
• Cultural Sensitivity: Ensure that all operations are culturally sensitive, respecting local customs and traditions.

• United Nations (UN) Support: Work with the UN to coordinate stabilization efforts and provide support for humanitarian assistance.
• Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) Support: Collaborate with NGOs to provide humanitarian assistance and support economic development.

1. Initial Response (0-3 months): Provide immediate assistance, including security, medical care, and food.
2. Stabilization (3-6 months): Focus on establishing a stable environment, supporting the development of local security forces, and promoting economic growth.
3. Transition (6-12 months): Gradually transfer responsibility to local authorities, while maintaining support for security and economic development.

• Security: Measure the reduction in violence and crime.
• Economic Growth: Track the increase in economic activity, including business start-ups and investment.
• Infrastructure Development: Monitor the development of critical infrastructure, such as roads and public buildings.
• Humanitarian Assistance: Evaluate the effectiveness of humanitarian assistance, including food, water, and medical care.

• Phase 3: Ground Combat: 4-12 weeks or more, depending on the level of resistance and international intervention
• Post-Conflict Stabilization: Given Venezuela’s entrenched factionalism, criminal overlays, and institutional fragility, a realistic projection extends to 36–60 months before the establishment of a sustainable governance architecture. Long-tail insurgency risk should be integrated into all COA (Course of Action) scenarios, including protracted low-intensity resistance supported by external actors.

• US Military: Security assistance, training, and mentoring for local security forces.
• US Diplomatic Efforts: Support for the development of a legitimate and effective government.
• International Organizations: Collaboration with international organizations, such as the UN, to coordinate stabilization efforts.

1. Insurgent or Militant Groups: The potential for insurgent or militant groups to exploit the transition period and launch attacks against US forces or the newly established government.
2. Corruption and Crime: The risk of corruption and crime, including the exploitation of resources and infrastructure by local officials or factions.
3. Humanitarian Crisis: The possibility of a humanitarian crisis, including food, water, and medical shortages, which could lead to instability and unrest.
4. Lack of Institutional Capacity: The lack of institutional capacity, including the absence of effective governance, security, and economic structures.

1. Balancing Security and Development: Balancing the need for security with the necessity of supporting development and stabilization efforts.
2. Building Local Capacity: Building the capacity of local institutions, including security forces, to maintain stability and provide basic services.
3. Addressing Trauma and Reconciliation: Addressing the trauma and reconciliation needs of affected populations, including providing support for mental health and social services.
4. Managing Expectations: Managing expectations among local populations, including ensuring that promises made during the conflict are kept.

1. Force Generation: Generating sufficient forces to maintain security while transitioning to a stabilization phase.
2. Logistics and Supply Chain Management: Managing logistics and supply chains to ensure the delivery of essential supplies and services.
3. Cultural and Language Barriers: Overcoming cultural and language barriers to effectively communicate with local populations.

1. Phased Transition: Implementing a phased transition, with clear milestones and benchmarks, to ensure a smooth handover to local authorities.
2. Capacity Building: Providing training and capacity-building support to local institutions to ensure they are equipped to maintain stability and provide basic services.
3. International Support: Leveraging international support, including the United Nations and non-governmental organizations, to provide humanitarian assistance and support stabilization efforts.
4. Civic Engagement: Engaging with local populations through civic engagement and outreach programs to build trust and manage expectations.

• Phase 3: Ground Combat: 4-12 weeks or more, depending on the level of resistance and international intervention
• Post-Conflict Stabilization: Given Venezuela’s entrenched factionalism, criminal overlays, and institutional fragility, a realistic projection extends to 36–60 months before the establishment of a sustainable governance architecture. Long-tail insurgency risk should be integrated into all COA (Course of Action) scenarios, including protracted low-intensity resistance supported by external actors.

• US Military: Security assistance, training, and mentoring for local security forces.
• US Diplomatic Efforts: Support for the development of a legitimate and effective government.
• International Organizations: Collaboration with international organizations, such as the UN, to coordinate stabilization efforts.

This publication is a doctrinal simulation for analytical and educational purposes only. It does not represent real-world operations, intent, or endorsement of any government policy.

Document: CRG-INT-NOT-1025/3 — Projected U.S. Intervention in Venezuela: Timelines and Strategic Assessment
Revision status: Final – Approved for internal CRG circulation and external academic reference release.
Authorized by: Condor Research Group (CRG) – Strategic Modeling / LATAM Node
Date: 12 Oct 2025 – CRG-LATAM-VER-A1-FINAL